Palin Effect
Here are my two cents on the Sarah Palin nomination:
- Palin may be stealing all of the headlines and getting high ratings but this actually helps Obama. As Chuck Todd of MSNBC keeps saying, if this election is a referendum purely about Obama, that helps McCain. Obama had all the press in July and McCain narrowed the gap. Put another way, if voters have to choose between McCain and Obama, Obama has the edge, but if voters have to choose between liking Obama and not liking Obama, it will be a tight race.
- Bush got elected because the GOP had great message discipline in '00 and '04 while the Dems didn't. This year, the reverse has been true: Obama has stuck to his "I'm change, he's more of the same message" through thick and thin. Much like Hillary Clinton's campaign, McCain has thrown the kitchen sink at Obama in terms of messaging. This latest pick of Palin is a concession by the Republicans that the experience card has already been played, so it's tome to ignite the base. Which leads me to my last point:
- While Palin may have ignited her base, she also has lit a spark in the Democratic base which has been pouring money into Obama's coffers this week. The numbers don't add up for the GOP this year if it's Dem base vs. GOP base. So igniting the GOP base would have been fine if she hadn't raised the ire of Obama's base. Beware of the Base!! (Even that drivel-spewing Republican strategist Mike Murphy is with me on this one: I think she’ll ultimately be a polarizer.... In a year where the Democrat generic numbers are 10+ points better than the Republican, I don’t like the math of a strategy that just polarized the election along party base lines.)
- Palin may be stealing all of the headlines and getting high ratings but this actually helps Obama. As Chuck Todd of MSNBC keeps saying, if this election is a referendum purely about Obama, that helps McCain. Obama had all the press in July and McCain narrowed the gap. Put another way, if voters have to choose between McCain and Obama, Obama has the edge, but if voters have to choose between liking Obama and not liking Obama, it will be a tight race.
- Bush got elected because the GOP had great message discipline in '00 and '04 while the Dems didn't. This year, the reverse has been true: Obama has stuck to his "I'm change, he's more of the same message" through thick and thin. Much like Hillary Clinton's campaign, McCain has thrown the kitchen sink at Obama in terms of messaging. This latest pick of Palin is a concession by the Republicans that the experience card has already been played, so it's tome to ignite the base. Which leads me to my last point:
- While Palin may have ignited her base, she also has lit a spark in the Democratic base which has been pouring money into Obama's coffers this week. The numbers don't add up for the GOP this year if it's Dem base vs. GOP base. So igniting the GOP base would have been fine if she hadn't raised the ire of Obama's base. Beware of the Base!! (Even that drivel-spewing Republican strategist Mike Murphy is with me on this one: I think she’ll ultimately be a polarizer.... In a year where the Democrat generic numbers are 10+ points better than the Republican, I don’t like the math of a strategy that just polarized the election along party base lines.)
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